Publications by klr
Japan Intentional or Accidental Pursuit of Deflation
Japan’s intentional or accidental pursuit of deflation has caused an imbalance far greater than Bernanke’s pursuit of inflation. Japanese policymakers have allowed Yen appreciation versus all other currencies. It appears that they recognize a couple of things: 1) Higher interest rates and inflation represent a much bigger risk to their c...
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Opinions Not Backed by Money Are Not That Believable–Updated and with R
As an update to http://timelyportfolio.blogspot.com/2010/12/opinions-not-backed-with-money-are-not.html, I have updated the revised data, added the past two months, and translated to R. If the world really is overly bullish on stocks as some suggest, I would think money would flow visibly in that direction. Reuven Brenner in Gambling and Specul...
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Silver and Russell 2000
When I find a chart that looks like this, I always like to explore a little further. via StockCharts.com I pull it into R and try to find anything worthwhile. I do not find anything, except that I do not want to be trading both in the same direction and expect any diversification. But we all know the whole world is correlated. From Time...
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Interest Rates’ Influence on 1987
One aspect of 1987 that does not deserve enough attention is interest rates. Higher interest rates constrain economic activity and compete with other investments. As seen in the chart below, the US 10year Treasury rate climbed 40% from 7% to 10% as the S&P made its 40% price run. Particularly interesting is the last move higher in rates as ...
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R User Group Birmingham Alabama
I would like to start a R user group in Birmingham, Alabama. Please comment if anyone is interested. I’m thinking I will host in Google Groups, since meetup costs money. Let me know if I should use some other site. Related To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: Timely Portfolio. R-blogger...
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Death Spiral Warning Graph
In the death spiral scenario, rates go up while the currency goes down. Here is the way to watch that. I’m not saying that death spiral of US Dollar and interest rates occurs, but without significant action to restore confidence in fiscal and monetary policies, it is almost certain. Fortunately free markets and a democracy might stop the ...
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Free and Easy Currency Monitor in R
Certainly not the best way to keep up with currencies, but the increasingly important job of monitoring currencies can be free and easy in R using Federal Reserve FRED data. Here is a template that can be adjusted to your favorite currencies with symbols listed here. See my previous post on how to monitor the potential US Dollar Collapse cheapl...
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The Leverage Space Trading Model
I finally got around to reading Ralph Vince’s latest The Leverage Space Trading Model (for a brief summary see this magazine article in Futures), and I’m happy to say that the book was very helpful in approach and example. I especially enjoyed the last two chapters which tied his method to the realities of the money management business whic...
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Asian Currency Opportunity
Asian currencies are fundamentally undervalued at an extreme level due to the Central Banks’ focus on the US$. For those that regularly read my blog or happened to see me in SmartMoney, this will not surprise you, “And investors can also buy emerging-market stocks in countries whose currencies appear undervalued, potentially seeing double ...
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Long EEM Short IWM-How it Works in 3 Ways
Long EEM Short IWM potentially works in 3 ways: 1) See my last post “Asian Currency Opportunity” where currency undervaluation means potential gain of 20-50% versus the US$ and 50%-100% versus the Japanese Yen. However, even absent the undervaluation, the spread offers protection against a declining dollar, for which most US bond, equity, a...
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