Publications by klr
REITs for Everybody Might Now Mean REITs for Nobody
THIS IS MY OPINION AND ANALYSIS AND IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN GAINS AND LOSSES. I think REITs traditionally attract conservative dividend investors (grandparents), but due to their recent behavior, REITs also attract beta chasers (hedge funds and traders). This additional demand has made REITs overvalued and...
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REIT Momentum in Quantstrat
I took a short break from quantstrat to do some REIT analysis REITs for Everybody Might Now Mean REITs for Nobody. Now let’s link the two by incorporating The Aleph Blog momentum bucket strategy in quantstrat. From TimelyPortfolio In all this, I have discovered significant weaknesses in my understanding of position sizing in quantstrat....
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REITs for Everybody Now REITs for Nobody Part 2
As a quick follow-up to my first REITs for Everybody Might Now Mean REITs for Nobody, I want to look at REITs and High Yield bonds, which also might simultaneously attract conservative yield buyers and speculative beta chasers.HYG (iShares High Yield) and IYR (iShares REIT) With R we can statistically analyze the similarity of REITs and High Yie...
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Exploring the Market with Hurst
Randomly trudging through PerformanceAnalytics source code, I was intrigued by the Hurst Index calculation, which I discovered is more commonly called Hurst Exponent. After quickly satisfying myself that I could actually do the rolling Hurst calculation in R, I wanted to see how this small discovery might be applied to market research and tradi...
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Testing Hurst with Multiple Indexes
DO NOT TRADE THIS SYSTEM. YOU VERY EASILY COULD LOSE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY. I am not necessarily recommending the system that I presented in Exploring the Market with Hurst, but I thought it would provide a nice platform to illustrate some backtesting with multiple indexes. Do not pass on the incredible opportunity presented by almost unlimi...
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Hurst as Relative Strength
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND COULD EASILY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOSSES. As an extension to Testing Hurst with Multiple Indexes and Exploring the Market with Hurst, we also might employ our new Hurst signal as a relative strength determinant. Let’s pick the index from S&P 500, German Dax, and the Nikkei 225 with the strongest Hurst signal...
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REITs for Everybody Now REITs for Nobody Part 3
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. LISTENING TO ME COULD LOSE LOTS OF MONEY. For some additional insight to my short REITs beliefs presented in REITs for Everybody Now REITs for Nobody Part 2 and REITs for Everybody Might Now Mean REITs for Nobody, I thought we should look at the underlying commercial real estate prices with the Moody’s/REAL CPPI...
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Confidence, Ending Equity, and What I Can Do as the Money Manager
I wrote this as my quarterly commentary, but compliance blocked it because they said I was implying that I am Warren Buffett or I can replicate Warren Buffett. Anyways, I thought I should share it as a general discussion piece. More than on any post, I would absolutely love feedback and comments good or bad. Confidence, Money Management, and...
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Bonds Risk and Return by Rating
As an extension to the Bond Market as a Casino Game series and Historical Sources of Bond Returns-Comparison of Daily to Monthly, I thought a ggplot of risk and return by decade and Moody’s Rating might be helpful. Anyone who has read those other posts know that my opinion of bonds Guaranteed Failure with Bonds is not very favorable, and this...
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Monitoring Sources of Bond Returns with ML/BAC Corporate OAS and CPI
In response to the nice comment requesting an update to Monitoring Sources of Bond Return and also longer history, I thought I would update the original and then rerun with CPI to give a longer time series. For even longer history back to 1919, see Historical Sources of Bond Returns with Shiller Data 1919-2011. Below are the results, and real...
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