Publications by sam
Mueller Report Volume 1: Network Analysis
settle down and have another cup of coffeecodeTLDRThere are a lot of Russian’s talking to a lot of Trump campaign members in Mueller report. There are so many it’s tough to get your head around it all. In this post I attempted some network analysis on the relations between campaign officials and Russians. I found that one can ‘compress’ R...
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Did Russia Use Manafort’s Polling Data in 2016 Election?
Introduction:On August 2, 2016 then Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort, gave polling data to Konstantin Kalimnik a Russian widely assumed to be a spy. Before then Manafort ordered his protege, Rick Gates, to share polling data with Kilmnik. Gates periodically did so starting April or May. The Mueller Report stated it did not know why Manafort ...
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What Were IRA Facebook Objectives in 2016 Election?
The Internet Research Agency (IRA), funded by friends of Russian Intelligence, used social media to try to influence the US 2016 election. They did so in an elaborate and systematic fashion. While the number of purchased ads and money spent on Facebook was small there were significant resources devoted to this endeavor as a whole. It’s overall...
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What Were IRA Facebook Objectives in 2016 Election?
The Internet Research Agency (IRA), funded by friends of Russian Intelligence, used social media to try to influence the US 2016 election. They did so in an elaborate and systematic fashion. While the number of purchased ads and money spent on Facebook was small there were significant resources devoted to this endeavor as a whole. It’s overall...
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Can Trade Explain Covid -19 Cases?
TLDR: I’ve found an association between number of people that tested positive for COVID-19 in a country and imports from China. In addition there are particular industries that are particularly correlated with COVID-19 rates. Iran is still an outlier taking this information into account. Intro:Coronavirus (COVID-19) rates of infection outside ...
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Covid Death Rates: Is the data correct?
Getting correct data on covid-19 cases is important to obtain up-to-date information on how the disease is progressing. It’s also necessary create models and make accurate forecasts. However, I’m starting to think most of the charts we see for covid cases over time are incorrect. The reason is these datasets with aggregate statistics by stat...
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Covid Death Rates: Is the data correct?
Getting correct data on covid-19 cases is important to obtain up-to-date information on how the disease is progressing. It’s also necessary create models and make accurate forecasts. However, I’m starting to think most of the charts we see for covid cases over time are incorrect. The reason is these datasets with aggregate statistics by stat...
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The mr_uplift package in R: A Practitioners Guide to Trade-Offs in Uplift Models
This post will go over a python package called mr_uplift (Multiple Responses Uplift) in R using the reticulate package. In it I set up a hypothetical problem using the GOTV dataset where we are interested in increasing voting while being mindful of some assumed costs.IntroductionUplift models (or heterogeneous treatment effect models) is a branch...
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The mr_uplift package in R: A Practitioners Guide to Trade-Offs in Uplift Models
This post will go over a python package called mr_uplift (Multiple Responses Uplift) in R using the reticulate package. In it I set up a hypothetical problem using the GOTV dataset where we are interested in increasing voting while being mindful of some assumed costs.IntroductionUplift models (or heterogeneous treatment effect models) is a branch...
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PredictIt vs Five Thirty Eight: An explanation of the differences between prediction markets and polling models
If you’re like me you’ve been looking at FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt election probabilities multiple times a day. Recently I’ve been focusing on some interesting disagreements in electoral outcomes at the state level. For instance; FiveThirtyEight gives Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio at least 20% lower probabilit...
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