Publications by Wingfeet
Secret Santa – again
Based on comments by cellocgw I decided to look at last week’s Secret Santa again. This time, the moment a person, whoever that is, draws his/her own name, the drawing starts again at the first person.IntroductionA group of n persons draws sequentially names for Secret Santa. Each person may not draw his/her own name. If a person dr...
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Secret Santa – unfinished business
Last week I wrote:This is actually a more difficult calculation (or I forgot too much probability). Luckily a bit of brute force comes in handy. To reiterate, in general simulated data shows 0.54 redraws because of the first person etc.colSums(countstop)/nrep[1] 0.54276 0.40735 0.31383 0.24834 0.20415In this last week I figured out ho...
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Triangle tests
IntroductionA triangle test is a test beloved by sensory scientists for its simplicity and general use in detecting presence of product differences. The principle is simple. Test subjects get served three samples. One of these contains A, two of these contain B. The test subject has the task to indicate which is the odd sample. If enough odd samp...
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To reject random walk in climate
I read the post The surprisingly weak case for global warming and the rejection; Climate: Misspecified. Based on the first, I wanted to make a post, just to write I agree with the second.The post features a number of plots like thisFor me, one of the noticeable features of this figure is how much the red line does not deviate from...
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The Eye of the World as word cloud
The Eye of the World is the first book of Robert Jordan’s Wheel of Time books. As the last of these books will be published soon, I was wondering if natural language processing can be used to examine books like these. For this purpose I downloaded a copy from somewhere undisclosed and analyzed it.During my experiments with this file...
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Common words in the Gathering Storm
The Wheel of Time is a series of books started by Robert Jordan. Unfortunately he died too early. Like all fans of the series I feel very lucky that Brandon Sanderson was able to continue these books. The first book Sanderson wrote was the Gathering Storm, last one is due January 2013. In this post it is examined how common words can ...
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Speed skating 10 km
It is winter which makes it time for one of Netherlands beloved sports: speed skating. Speed skating is done over various distances, but for me, the most beautiful is the 10 km. The top men do this in about 13 minutes. In this post I try to use a simple PLS model to predict the finish time as function of lap times. It turns out that...
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Sequential testing in a triangle test setting
It is well known the binomial test never has an error of exactly 5%. You aim for at most 5%, calculate the number correct to get there and end up with an error of e.g 2%. This is a shame but there is no solution. However, it is also an opportunity; the ‘unused’ error may be employed for additional testing. For instance, in a trian...
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European Migration
Last week on the radio I heard a story of southern Europeans and Irish looking for better times in northern Europe. I heard the tale of an Italian academic who left Italy to end up waiting tables in an Italian restaurant in the Netherlands. Obviously this is not good, not good for Italy which loses its academics, not good for somebody...
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European Fishing
I am playing around with Eurostat data and ggplot2 a bit more. As I progress it seems the plotting gets more easy, the data pre-processing a bit more simple and the surprises on the data stay.Eurostat dataThe data used are fish_fleet (number of ships) and fish_pr (production=catch+aquaculture). After a bit of year selection, 1992 and ...
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