Publications by Wingfeet
Football (Eredivisie) goals
The football season has started in Netherlands, so I went and had a look at last year’s scores. I did not find downloadable data, at http://www.eredivisiestats.nl/wedstrijden.php I could copy last season’s data and paste into a spreadsheet. The default layout did not look good to me for statistical analysis (first lines shown be...
4176 sym 10 img 1 tbl
Football predictions display
Having looked at the football data earlier, I wanted to look at predictions for new games. This consists of two parts, getting a predictive model, predicting and displaying the predictions. I decided to do this backwards, first to make the displays. This will make things easier when the time is there to compare models. To get the pred...
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Football model
After reading Dutch football data (Eeredivisie 2011-2012) and making a predictions display it is time to look at a few simple models to predict goals. To reiterate the data setup, each game played consists of two rows in the data frame. One row for the number of goals the home playing team makes, another row for the away team. We s...
8107 sym 4 img
Football model; plots and usage
After reading data, making a predictions display and building a football data model it is time to put this to validate a bit more (regression plots) and put to usage. It appears that the regression plots in the car package were not very informative for this model, except to find unexpected results. The predictions are not good at ...
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Football, an ordinal model
On September 19th, flo2speak remarked under a post that his/her experience is that ordinal models had better performance. That seems reason enough to try, so there we are. In examining this type of model it is found that more complex models can be used. There is now an interaction between defense powers and home/away and an effect of...
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Footbal ordinal model: examination and predictions
In the previous entry an ordinal model for football games was developed. It is now time to look a bit better at the model and use it. This means three sections; A look at likelihood and link function, a model interpretation part, which focuses on the effect of playing away or at home and a look at some predictions.model definitionJ...
7126 sym 6 img
Putting a football model into JAGS
In this post the football model is programmed into JAGS. There are all the reasons to do so. Jags 3.3 is recently released, I was stimulated by Gianluca‘s post . Obviously I could copy the model in his paper, but that would be too easy and not sure about copyright either. So, in this post, variations of the model of an earlier p...
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Mixed distribution
In the football data there was some reason to use a mixed distribution in the football data (ref) so I tried doing that. It was more difficult than I expected. Not only is a mixture of distributions fairly difficult, also the system was over parameterized, causing grief.mixed distributiondata from a mixed distribution is simply said d...
7784 sym
Finishing football postings
For now this is the last post about these football data. It started in August, by now it is November. But just to finish up; the model as it should have been last week.ModelAs most of what I did is described last week, only the model as it went in Jags is shown.Explanation: Each team has a total strength (TStr) and an attack/defense s...
6108 sym
Secret Santa
On reddit somebody asked For n individuals, what’s the probability that the last person to pick during a round of Secret Santa name picking, will pick their own name.. “With each person picking in turn, and re-picking if they pick out their own name.‘ Two simulations were proposed. After some thinking I think it can be calcu...
5011 sym R (303 sym/1 pcs)