Publications by Ian

The Pfizer-Biontech Vaccine May Be A Lot More Effective Than You Think

10.11.2020

tl;dr; The point estimate for vaccine effectiveness may be 97%, which is a lot higher than 90% Yesterday an announcement went out that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate developed by Pfizer and Biontech was determined to be effective during an interim analysis. This is fantastic news. Perhaps the best news of the year. It is however another example...

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Moderna Pfizer Vaccine Update

16.11.2020

In a previous post we looked at the potential effectiveness of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine candidate. Today Moderna announced interim results from their study. I have to say that their press release was quite a bit more informative than the Pfizer release. They report that only 5 of the 95 cases came from the vaccine group (94% efficacy!). This ...

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Final Moderna + Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy Update

18.11.2020

Okay, last one I swear. We just got updated results from the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine candidate. With 8 out of 170 cases belonging to the treatment group, the point estimate is remarkably similar to the Moderna preliminary results (~95% effectiveness). I will note that I was right in saying that the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine is likely much more effe...

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What to Expect When You Are Expecting the Delta Covid-19 Variant

30.06.2021

SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) has been the defining driver of the market since its emergence. Understanding the progression of the disease through the world has been the secret sauce of alpha generation. Correctly parsing the early infectivity and morality data allowed some to avoid the COVID crash and a solid reading into phase II and phase III vaccine ...

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