Tajikistan profile

Demography and Health

Tajikistan is a developing, relatively youthful country with a population of about 10.6 million in 2024. The demographic profile is shaped by a high birth rate of 26.1 births per 1,000 people in 2023, supporting ongoing population growth and a large share of young people who will enter the labor force in coming years. Life expectancy at birth is 71.8 years (2023), indicating improvements in health outcomes but still below the levels seen in many middle-income economies. The crude death rate is 4.58 per 1,000 people (2023), and the under-5 mortality rate stands at 27.3 per 1,000 live births (2023), signaling persistent challenges in maternal and child health services, nutrition, and access to quality care. Health system capacity reflects resource constraints: hospital beds total 4.32 per 1,000 people (2021) and physicians 2.13 per 1,000 people (2021), underscoring the need for further investment to expand coverage and quality of care. Public health spending is 7.63% of GDP (2022), with domestic health expenditure per capita, purchasing power parity terms, about 85 international dollars (PPP, 2022), suggesting limited per-capita public investment in health. Poverty affects roughly one-fifth of the population (20.4% in 2023), and 8.7% of the population faced undernourishment in 2022, linking nutrition, poverty, and health outcomes. Net migration is negative (-21,236 in 2024), indicating more people leaving than entering, which can influence household welfare and labor markets. Internet use has grown to 56.8% of the population in 2023, reflecting rising digital access that could support health information, telemedicine, and education, provided connectivity and literacy continue to improve. Overall, the demography and health landscape point to a young but underserved population cluster, where expanding health services, nutrition programs, and social protection will be central to advancing well-being and inclusive growth.

Economy, Trade and Investment

Tajikistan’s economy remains small by nominal standards, with GDP per capita at 1,341 current US$ in 2024, while the GDP per capita on a PPP basis is about 5,406 international US$, indicating a substantial gap between market prices and living costs that cushions some consumption but reflects low average incomes. Economic activity depends on a narrow export structure and sizable imports: exports of goods and services are 17.2% of GDP in 2023, whereas imports account for 48.4% of GDP, implying a heavy reliance on external supplies for both consumption and investment. The external sector is tempered by a modest level of foreign direct investment, net inflows at 2.05% of GDP in 2024, suggesting limited but meaningful foreign financing for capital projects. The current account balance stands at 6.24% of GDP in 2024, a sign of a positive external position that can support macro stability, albeit subject to fluctuations in remittances and commodity prices that are not detailed in the data. Poverty persists, with 20.4% of the population living below national poverty lines in 2023, highlighting how growth translates unevenly across society. The country records a very small tied footprint in high-technology exports, around 3.0 million USD in 2022, signaling that advanced manufacturing and knowledge-intensive sectors are still developing. While macro indicators show some resilience, they also reflect structural constraints: a low nominal income level, a broad dependence on imports, and governance and investment climate factors that influence the pace and inclusiveness of growth.

Governance and Institutions

Tajikistan’s governance indicators point to significant institutional challenges. Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism register a score of -0.473 (2023), while Regulatory Quality is -1.18, Rule of Law -1.28, and Control of Corruption -1.38; Government Effectiveness stands at -0.772 (all 2023). These negative values suggest difficulties in maintaining political stability, implementing regulatory reforms, enforcing contracts, and reducing corruption—factors that can constrain entrepreneurial activity, deter investment, and hamper effective public service delivery. In this context, the business and development environment faces elevated governance risks, which can complicate project implementation, increase transaction costs, and limit the efficiency of state capacity. Beyond formal metrics, Tajikistan’s policy environment also interacts with trade logistics and public sector performance, influencing both private sector confidence and the capacity to translate aid and investment into visible outcomes for citizens.

Infrastructure and Technology

Infrastructure and technology in Tajikistan reveal a mix of gains and gaps. Health and public services face capacity constraints, evidenced by hospital beds at 4.32 per 1,000 people (2021) and physicians at 2.13 per 1,000 people (2021). The digital dimension shows growing connectively, with 56.8% of the population online in 2023, suggesting a rising base for digital services, education, and e-government if accompanied by affordability and digital literacy improvements. The country’s logistics environment has a mixed signal: the Logistics Performance Index (quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure) registers a score of 2.5 (2022) on a 1 to 5 scale, indicating meaningful but imperfect trade infrastructure and a need for upgrades to reduce costs and lead times for imports and exports. Public health expenditure remains a factor of investment policy, with domestic general government health expenditure per capita, PPP, at 85.3 (2022), signaling limited but targeted public financing for health services. The high-technology export footprint is modest, with exports totaling around 3 million USD in 2022, underscoring that transformative, knowledge-intensive sectors are still developing. On energy, renewable energy accounted for 34.9% of total final energy consumption (2021), signaling potential for expanding clean power generation, particularly if hydropower resources are leveraged efficiently. Water resources are strained, with a freshwater withdrawal level of 69.9% of available resources (2021), highlighting the need for integrated water management, energy-water nexus planning, and resilience in the face of climate variability. Overall, infrastructure and technology drivers show potential for upgrade—especially in logistics, health capacity, and digital inclusion—if governance and investment conditions improve and capital is directed toward strategic sectors.

Environment and Sustainability

Tajikistan faces environmental pressures consistent with its geography and development status. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita, excluding land-use changes, are about 2.06 t CO2e per person in 2023, placing emissions at a moderate level for a country with a developing economy reliant on energy-intensive activities. The level of water stress is high, with freshwater withdrawals representing about 69.9% of available resources as of 2021, signaling substantial competition among agriculture, households, and industry for water—an issue likely to intensify with climate variability. Renewable energy constitutes roughly 34.9% of total final energy consumption in 2021, suggesting a meaningful, though not dominant, share of renewables and indicating room to expand clean energy, particularly if hydropower and other renewables are scaled with efficiency gains and grid integration. Nutritional and social stress are reflected in nutrient-poor outcomes such as 8.7% undernourishment in 2022, while the poverty rate at national thresholds sits around 20.4% in 2023, underscoring the intertwined challenges of energy, water, health, and livelihoods. The environmental and climate context is thus characterized by substantial water resource pressures, an opportunity to lean more on renewables, and the imperative to align environmental stewardship with inclusive growth and resilience initiatives for the most vulnerable communities.