Guinea-Bissau profile

Demography and Health

Guinea-Bissau is a small West African country with a population of about 2.20 million in 2024. The demographic profile is characterized by a high birth rate (30.0 per 1,000 people in 2023) and a relatively low death rate (7.05 per 1,000), resulting in steady natural population growth. Nevertheless, net migration is negative in 2024 (−1,712 people), which dampens overall population expansion by removing potential workers and skilled individuals. Life expectancy at birth stands at 64.1 years (2023), signaling moderate health outcomes by regional standards, but not reaching regional averages that reflect higher investments in health systems elsewhere. A particularly stark indicator is the under-5 mortality rate of 69.3 per 1,000 live births (2023), underscoring substantial child health challenges and the vulnerability of young families. With a birth cohort that remains large, the country faces growing demand for maternal and child health services, vaccination, nutrition, and education services, all of which are constrained by health financing and workforce gaps. The poverty headcount is 50.5% of the population (2021), and the prevalence of undernourishment is 32.2% (2022), signaling persistent food insecurity and nutrition-related health risks that can undermine developmental outcomes. The health system appears under-resourced: current health expenditure accounts for 8.11% of GDP (2022), while physicians number only 0.208 per 1,000 people (2022), reflecting limited access to qualified care, especially in rural areas. Public health financing per capita is modest, with domestic general government health expenditure per capita, PPP, at 25.3 international dollars (2022). Together, these indicators suggest a nation with a young but vulnerable population, where demographic pressure, malnutrition, and limited health capacity interact to constrain health outcomes and human development. The digital divide is evident as internet use is 32.5% of the population (2023), which can impede access to health information, telemedicine, and remote health services. On balance, demographic momentum combined with resource constraints argues for targeted investments in primary health care, nutrition programs, maternal-child services, and health workforce development to translate youth into healthier, better-educated citizens.

Economy

Guinea-Bissau presents a low-income economic profile, with GDP per capita at current prices around US$963 in 2024 and a GDP per capita on a PPP basis of about US$3,053, highlighting a sizable gap between nominal living standards and purchasing-power-adjusted living standards. Inflation is modest at 3.77% in 2024, signaling price stability within a low-to-moderate inflation environment. The economy relies on a relatively small export base, with exports of goods and services totaling 12.5% of GDP in 2024 and imports at 28.2% of GDP, indicating a persistent external orientation with a substantial import bill that can strain the current account. The current account balance stands at −7.71% of GDP in 2023, reflecting external financing needs and exposure to global price and demand shocks. Foreign direct investment, net inflows, are modest at 1.21% of GDP (2023), suggesting limited external financing and technology transfer, which hinders productivity growth and structural transformation. Poverty remains pervasive, with 50.5% of the population below the national poverty line (2021), and 32.2% undernourished (2022), signaling material hardship that constrains household demand and human capital formation. On the energy side, the country benefits from a high share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption—87.4% (2022)—which reduces exposure to fossil fuel volatility and positions Guinea-Bissau to pursue low-carbon development, provided there is adequate investment in infrastructure and institutions to translate energy advantages into broader productivity gains. Overall, the economy is small, open, and fragile, facing persistent distributional and growth challenges but endowed with a favorable energy mix that could underpin greener development if governance and investment conditions improve.

Trade and Investment

Trade and investment dynamics in Guinea-Bissau reveal a small, open economy with relatively modest export performance and a reliance on imports. Exports of goods and services amount to 12.5% of GDP in 2024, while imports account for 28.2% of GDP, pointing to a trade deficit that can create vulnerabilities to external demand and exchange-rate fluctuations. The current account deficit of 7.71% of GDP (2023) underscores ongoing external financing needs and the importance of attracting durable capital inflows or improving the trade balance. Foreign direct investment net inflows are 1.21% of GDP (2023), indicating a cautious level of external participation that may reflect governance constraints, risk perceptions, and limited market size. The Logistics Performance Index stands at 2.4 (2022) on a 1-to-5 scale, indicating that transport and trade-related infrastructure—critical to reducing the cost and time of doing business—has considerable room for improvement. The high share of renewables in energy supply (87.4%, 2022) could create a competitive edge for energy-intensive exports or sectors like agriculture and fisheries if supported by reliable infrastructure and predictable policy environments. Taken together, these indicators portray a country with limited but potential-grade trade capacity—imbued with macro-financial fragility and governance constraints—where improvements in infrastructure, export diversification, and investment climate could unlock more dynamic trade and growth trajectories.

Governance and Institutions

Governance and institutional quality in Guinea-Bissau are characterized by substantial challenges across key dimensions. In 2023, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism registers at −0.328, signaling persistent political risk and susceptibility to instability. Regulatory Quality is −1.25, Rule of Law is −1.44, and Government Effectiveness is −1.43, all indicating weak formal constraints on arbitrary actions, limited policy credibility, and constrained public service delivery. Control of Corruption stands at −1.18 (2023), highlighting vulnerabilities to corruption and limited transparency in public processes. Collectively, these indicators describe a fragile governance environment with significant obstacles to implementing reforms, delivering services, and creating a predictable investment climate. The negative scores on multiple dimensions point to systemic constraints in accountability, judicial independence, and bureaucratic capacity, which can complicate even well-designed development programs. While these indicators signal a high-risk environment, they also suggest clear targets for reform: strengthen anti-corruption frameworks, improve rule of law and judicial efficiency, enhance public financial management, and build capacity in core institutions to support service delivery and private-sector confidence. Progress is likely to be gradual and contingent on political will and external support, rather than rapid, one-off changes.

Infrastructure and Technology

Guinea-Bissau faces notable gaps in infrastructure and technological readiness that affect competitiveness and service delivery. The Logistics Performance Index score of 2.4 (2022) points to serious bottlenecks in trade-related infrastructure and logistics services, including transport, customs, and supply chain efficiency. Internet penetration stands at 32.5% (2023), reflecting a substantial digital divide that limits access to online information, e-government services, and digital markets for a large portion of the population. The health and education sectors are hampered by a sparse health workforce (0.208 physicians per 1,000 people in 2022) and a health expenditure share of 8.11% of GDP (2022), with per capita public health expenditure (PPP) at 25.3 international dollars (2022). These figures emphasize the need for investments in human capital, primary health care, and digital infrastructure to support service delivery and labor productivity. On the energy front, the country benefits from a remarkably high renewable energy footprint—87.4% of total final energy consumption (2022)—which offers a strong platform for expanding access to clean electricity, reducing import dependence, and stabilizing electricity costs for households and businesses. Realizing these benefits will require upgrades in grid reliability, transmission, and policy frameworks to attract investment and ensure affordability and access. In sum, infrastructure and technology in Guinea-Bissau present a mixed picture: strategic advantages from renewables exist, but broad connectivity and service-delivery gaps must be addressed to lift living standards and support private-sector development.

Environment and Sustainability

Environmental and sustainability indicators in Guinea-Bissau reveal a country leaning toward low-carbon energy and facing climate-related pressures. The renewable energy share is exceptionally high, at 87.4% of total final energy consumption (2022), implying a favorable orientation toward clean energy, reduced fossil-fuel import costs, and resilience against volatile global energy prices. Total greenhouse gas emissions per capita are 1.39 t CO2e (2023), reflecting limited industrial activity and a correspondingly low per-person emission footprint, but this figure could rise as development proceeds unless energy and efficiency gains are scaled. The Level of Water Stress indicator—defined as freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources— registers at 1.5 (2021). While this value may reflect methodological nuances, it suggests elevated pressure on water resources, especially given population growth and climate variability. This combination of abundant renewables, low current emissions, and water-stress signals points to a sustainability path that prioritizes climate-resilient infrastructure, water resource management, and careful land- and marine-use planning to protect livelihoods tied to fisheries, agriculture, and hydropower. The environmental trajectory thus hinges on governance and investment to translate the renewable-energy advantage into reliable electricity access, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive management of natural resources, balancing growth with ecological stewardship.