Guinea profile

Demography and Health

Guinea’s population stands at about 14.75 million in 2024, placing it in the mid-range globally by size but with substantial growth pressures given its structure. The birth rate is exceptionally high at 33.8 births per 1,000 people (2023), paired with a crude death rate of 9.12 per 1,000, signaling a young population but also a persistent ongoing burden on health, education, and social services. Life expectancy at birth is around 60.7 years (2023), reflecting constrained health outcomes by regional standards and a health system that faces multiple challenges. Under-5 mortality is alarmingly high at 95 deaths per 1,000 live births (2023), underscoring gaps in maternal and child health, nutrition, vaccination coverage, and access to essential services. The demographic momentum implied by a large youth cohort interacts with a low GDP per capita and limited health infrastructure, creating a rising demand for schooling, job creation, and effective public health interventions. Net migration is negative, with about 12,024 people leaving in 2024, suggesting out-migration could deplete the country of skilled labor and potentially hinder domestic health workforce development and economic resilience.

Health financing indicators paint a picture of limited funding in health. Current health expenditure accounts for about 3.96% of GDP in 2022, and domestic general government health expenditure per capita (PPP) is 21.4 international dollars (2022), both pointing to modest public investment in health relative to needs. The availability of physicians is extremely constrained, at roughly 0.021 physicians per 1,000 people (2022), which, combined with a low share of GDP allocated to health, helps explain weak health outcomes such as high under-5 mortality and relatively low life expectancy. The burden of undernourishment remains a challenge, with about 10.3% of the population affected in 2022, signaling nutrition-related vulnerabilities that can compound health and productivity challenges. Internet penetration is moderate (26.5% in 2023), highlighting gaps in digital health, health information dissemination, and remote service delivery which have become more important in modern public health strategies. Overall, while the country shows signs of a demographic boom that could propel development if supported by investments in health, education, and jobs, current health indicators reveal substantial needs for scale-up in health services, workforce, and nutrition programs.

Environmental and energy dynamics intersect with health outcomes as well. Guinea’s substantial renewable energy share (see Infrastructure and Technology for details) hints at opportunities to improve energy reliability and reduce health-harming air pollution associated with reliance on traditional fuels. However, the health sector’s capacity, access to clean water and sanitation, and nutrition security remain critical to improving life expectancy and child survival. The combination of a young population, limited health financing, and a shortfall in health workforce collectively points to the essential role of governance, investment, and targeted programs in health equity and resilience.

Economy

Guinea’s economy exhibits a low-to-middle income profile, with GDP per capita (current US$) at about 1,717 in 2024, and GDP per capita at PPP around 4,579 international dollars. This places the country below regional and global averages, reflecting a combination of low productivity in key sectors, structural constraints, and development challenges. Inflation stands at 8.12% in 2024, indicating price pressures that can erode purchasing power and complicate social equity, especially for households with limited wage growth. The export orientation is noticeable: exports of goods and services amount to about 44% of GDP in 2024, while imports account for about 56.1% of GDP, signaling a relatively open economy with significant import reliance for goods, capital, and intermediate inputs. The current account balance is positive at roughly 10.2% of GDP in 2023, suggesting a favorable external position that could be sustained by favorable terms of trade, remittances, or commodity-related earnings, even as trade remains import-intensive.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows reach about 5.84% of GDP in 2023, indicating a moderate level of investor interest but also highlighting the constraints posed by governance indicators and the investment climate. The combination of a favorable current account with a modestly growing investment appetite implies potential for macro stability if policy and governance reforms can unlock higher private investment and productivity growth. The economy’s effectiveness in converting investment into broad-based development, however, will hinge on structural reforms, macroeconomic stability, and the ability to diversify beyond any single commodity or sector. With GDP per capita still low and the cost of living rising due to inflation, inclusive growth strategies and targeted social protection will be essential to translate macro gains into improved living standards for the population.

Trade and Investment

Trade openness in Guinea is evident, with exports comprising 44% of GDP (2024) and imports at 56.1% of GDP (2024). This reflects an economy that engages in substantial external flows and is reliant on external markets for consumer goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods. The profile suggests vulnerability to global price and demand shocks, but also opportunities to leverage trade, improve exchange-rate policy, and diversify export baskets through comparative advantages in natural resources or agricultural products. The logistics environment, as captured by the Logistics Performance Index (quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure) at 2.4 (2022), points to mid-to-poor performance in logistics facilitation. This can raise trade costs, reduce competitiveness, and hamper the speed and reliability of cross-border transactions, which in turn can deter investment and limit export diversification. High import dependence, coupled with governance weaknesses (negative scores on regulatory quality, rule of law, political stability), can impede efficient customs procedures, increase compliance costs, and create business risk for traders and investors seeking to participate in Guinea’s market.

Foreign direct investment at 5.84% of GDP signals some external capital inflows that can support projects, job creation, and technology transfer, yet governance indicators such as control of corruption (-0.898) and government effectiveness (-0.908) suggest that the investment climate faces significant institutional hurdles. Addressing these governance gaps—by improving regulatory quality, strengthening the rule of law, and stabilizing political conditions—could unlock higher inward investment, boost productivity, and enhance the quality and resilience of the export sector. The financial environment shows a positive current account position, which can be conducive to macro stability but must be managed alongside inflationary pressures and price volatility in imported goods. Together, these dynamics underline a need for structural reforms that elevate the efficiency of trade, reduce logistics costs, and expand the country’s capacity to capture value from its external sector.

Governance and Institutions

Guinea’s governance indicators reveal pronounced room for improvement across multiple dimensions. Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism registers at -0.878 in 2023, while regulatory quality sits at -1.08 and the rule of law at -1.11. Control of corruption is also negative at -0.898, and government effectiveness mirrors this challenge at -0.908. These patterns suggest a governance environment marked by fragility and policy volatility, which can undermine investor confidence, distort public spending, and hamper the effective delivery of services including health, education, and infrastructure. When governance quality is weak, public institutions may struggle to implement reforms, enforce regulations, or maintain credible policy commitment, all of which are essential for sustaining long-run development, macroeconomic stability, and the trust of citizens and the private sector.

On the other hand, the broad reliance on public spending and public institutions means improvements in governance could yield high returns through more effective health and education systems, cleaner procurement processes, and more stable business conditions. The data call for targeted governance reforms: strengthening anti-corruption frameworks, improving regulatory clarity, enhancing the independence and efficiency of the judiciary, and fostering a more predictable policy environment. Investments in governance reforms could complement macroeconomic and social initiatives, helping to convert the country’s natural resource and human capital potential into sustainable development outcomes.

Infrastructure and Technology

Infrastructure and technology indicators reveal a mixed picture. Internet penetration stands at 26.5% of the population (2023), indicating a digital divide that constrains digital entrepreneurship, e-government, and access to online health, education, and financial services. The logistics performance index score of 2.4 (2022) signals relatively limited quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, which can raise logistics costs, slow supply chains, and hinder regional integration. The policy environment and governance constraints discussed above further compound these challenges by creating uncertainty for private investors who might otherwise upgrade infrastructure or adopt new technologies.

From an energy perspective, Guinea shows a relatively favorable renewable energy footprint, with renewable energy accounting for 66.6% of total final energy consumption in 2022. This underscores significant potential for leveraging hydro, solar, or other renewables to improve energy security, reduce carbon intensity, and lower energy costs for households and industry. Yet this potential must be realized within a framework of robust energy planning, grid development, and reliability improvements to ensure that the benefits of renewables translate into broader development gains. Health, education, and industry can all benefit from improved access to reliable electricity and digital connectivity, making infrastructure investments a high-leverage area for Guinea’s development strategy.

In terms of human capital, the extremely low physicians density (0.021 per 1,000 people in 2022) and modest domestic health expenditure reflect critical gaps in healthcare provision, which infrastructure investments could help address if paired with workforce development and efficient public spending. The transport and energy foundations together shape the broader productivity environment, and upgrading these sectors could help stimulate private sector activity and attract more investment across the economy.

Environment and Sustainability

Environment and sustainability indicators show both progress and ongoing vulnerabilities. Total greenhouse gas emissions per capita stand at 1.99 t CO2e in 2023, indicating a relatively modest per-person emissions profile, likely linked to a lower level of industrial activity and energy consumption per capita. The high share of renewable energy use (66.6%) is a favorable signal for climate resilience and long-term sustainability, suggesting opportunities to further decarbonize and reduce exposure to fossil-fuel price volatility. However, Guinea faces environmental pressures that intersect with development needs. The prevalence of undernourishment at 10.3% (2022) points to nutrition vulnerabilities that can be aggravated by climate shocks, land degradation, or insufficient agricultural productivity. Water stress, measured as freshwater withdrawal relative to available resources, is 1.37 (2021), indicating constraints in water resources that could become more acute with population growth and climate variability. Building resilient water management, agricultural productivity, and rural livelihoods will be crucial to safeguarding both environmental and human development outcomes.

In the broader governance and market context, the mix of environmental pressures and strong renewable energy potential presents Guinea with a pathway to sustainable development if investments align with social protection, nutrition, and health system strengthening. The interdependencies among energy, water, agriculture, health, and education highlight the need for integrated policy planning that leverages renewable energy, improves infrastructure, and expands access to essential services for the most vulnerable populations, while also supporting export-oriented growth through enhanced trade logistics and a stable governance framework.