Publications by Selcuk Disci
Understanding the Effect of Subsidies on Agriculture with Neural Networks
Today, subsidies are the most common method of encouraging countries to deal with global warming; but it is debatable how effective they are. For instance, agriculture subsidies cause farmers to violate forest frontier and make them responsible for 14% of global deforestation every year. Not to mention excessive use of fertilizers degrades the soil...
3053 sym R (7573 sym/6 pcs) 4 img
JAGS Simulation with Multivariate State-Space Model: The G7 on Food Security
The 49th G7 summit was held recently in Japan. Ukraine was one of the most critical issues at the meeting; most of the session topic was related to problems stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One of the problems, aforementioned is food security. Because of the war, energy prices have been up. And that has stimulated food inflation. ...
1945 sym R (6312 sym/5 pcs) 4 img
Understanding the Gender-based Over-qualified Employment Rates in the EU using Bootstrap Intervals
Most of the time, if there is a recession in an economy, it leads to a high unemployment rate, and then it triggers the over-qualified employment rate; Because people would feel financially insecure and they’d accept the first job that comes their way regardless of how the job suit for their skills or education levels. Over-qualification employme...
2101 sym R (4157 sym/3 pcs) 4 img
Predicting the Real USD/TRY Rates with MARS
The ongoing debate recently in Turkey is that the Turkish government has suppressed US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rates (USD/TRY) to prevent economic turmoil. Many authorities in the business, especially exporters, think that the USD/TRY parity should be in the range of 24-25 Turkish Lira. To look through that, we will predict for the whole year ...
2469 sym R (6880 sym/6 pcs) 2 img
Food Inflation: Comparing with Interactive Chart of {ggiraph}
According to authorities, up to 205 million are facing food insecurity in about 45 countries. Besides global warming that causes poor rainfall performance, another strong reason to worry about the issue is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which causes trade-related restrictions. I’ve just wondered how this reflects on food inflation. To do that, w...
1791 sym R (3368 sym/2 pcs) 2 img
Forecasting Disney Stock Prices as the Latest Earnings Beat Estimates
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) recently announced significant labor cuts to ease shareholders’ pressure on reducing costs due to rising streaming investment. These cuts and some structural changes in the company have provided some boost to stock prices. We will examine these price changes based on earnings per share (EPS) and their consensus forecast...
1993 sym R (3645 sym/4 pcs) 4 img
Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.
The debt ceiling was always an issue in the United States. As of today, the national government debt has reached the debt ceiling, which is $31.4 trillion. The authorities have warned of chaotic consequences if Congress no longer approves the debt ceiling. The U.S. government has managed an annual deficit of approximately $1 billion since 2001. W...
1959 sym R (2504 sym/2 pcs) 4 img
The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model
During the pandemic, the stock prices almost doubled, but their trends have recently declined. One of the reasons for that might be the interest rates. To examine this, we will take a consideration ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is a long-term growth capital by investing mostly in tech companies. First, we will create our datasets. The interest...
1667 sym R (4250 sym/5 pcs) 4 img
Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime
While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’s add ...
1603 sym R (2905 sym/4 pcs) 6 img
The effect of Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)
Recently, I read a tweet that reports children who grow up in poor conditions earn much less as adults than those with better conditions. I believe one of the best ways to check that is to compare childhood education participation rates with wealth in related countries; in order to do that, I will use childhood education enrollment and household ...
1907 sym R (6343 sym/6 pcs) 6 img