Publications by Selcuk Disci
The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model
During the pandemic, the stock prices almost doubled, but their trends have recently declined. One of the reasons for that might be the interest rates. To examine this, we will take a consideration ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is a long-term growth capital by investing mostly in tech companies. First, we will create our datasets. The interest...
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Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime
While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’s add ...
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The effect of Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)
Recently, I read a tweet that reports children who grow up in poor conditions earn much less as adults than those with better conditions. I believe one of the best ways to check that is to compare childhood education participation rates with wealth in related countries; in order to do that, I will use childhood education enrollment and household ...
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Housing Markets Down: Hierarchical Time Series
For a long time, everybody in Turkey complains about how far the house and rent prices are up. It seems the same situation is true all over the world. This is called the pandemic housing boom in the USA. But this might’ve been coming to the end, according to some authorities. To check this argument, we will first examine the trend of quarterly ...
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CO2 Emissions Comparing and Modeling for Global Warming
Recently, I watched the new Predator movie, Pray, and I loved it. Hence, I’ve fallen into the Predators series, especially the first two movies, again. The Predators in the movie would choose warm planets to hunt because their vision capabilities are based on infrared thermal, which allows them to see heat signatures. Carbon dioxide emissions a...
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Military Expenditure Estimation with RJAGS Simulation
The side effect of the ongoing Russian occupation was that it stimulated countries’ intentions to increase their military budgets. Last month following the invasion, Germany announced a budget of 100 billion € for the restructuring of the army and announced that it would spend %2 of its GDP every year. Of course, it is not a good development ...
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Modeling with Interaction Terms, and Waffle Chart for Comparing: Immigration Flow to the West
There has been a massive debate about the refugee crisis in Turkey for a long time. Turkish people blame immigrants (mostly from Syria) for the worsening economy, and they believe that the immigrants are in wealthy conditions while they themselves suffer from bad economic conditions. I want to check the accuracy of these claims. First, we will co...
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Food Crisis Analysis and, Forecasting with Neural Network Autoregression
The war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the global food supply other than many vital things. Primarily cereal crop products have been affected the most because the imports have been provided to the world mainly through Ukraine and Russia. Let’s check the situation we’ve mentioned for G20 countries. library(tidyverse) library(fpp3) lib...
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Comparing Plastic Pollution: Modeling with Tidymodels and Variable Importance
Plastic wastes are one of the most dominant pollution factors in the environment as we live in an era where modern industries exist. The most dangerous part of this kind of pollution is mismanaged plastic waste, which ends up mixing into the ocean in the end. Our World in Data, which we’ll be taking the data for this article, claims that lower-...
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Trend Forecasting Models and Seasonality with Time Series
Gasoline prices always is an issue in Turkey; because Turkish people love to drive where they would go but they complain about the prices anyway. I wanted to start digging for the last seven years’ prices and how they went. I have used unleaded gasoline 95 octane prices from Petrol Ofisi which is a fuel distribution company in Turke...
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