Publications by Selcuk Disci
Time Series Analysis and Understanding a Eurobond Fund with Prophet
The Eurobonds are so popular in Turkey nowadays. The reason for this is that the CDS of Turkey fell for quite a while since the new economic outlook began, according to the economists. We will look into the factors that shape this trend in this article. First, we build our data set with the components that we think are related to the Turkish Eurobo...
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Forecasting Freddie Mac with the DeepAR Algorithm
Mortgage rates have been the highest in the US over the last 20 years. Inventory shortage and high inflation have driven home prices up. I have analyzed this situation by taking FMCC as an indicator of the American housing market. I’ve examined the distribution of Freddie Mac(FMCC) before and after the mortgage crisis period. While I did that, I ...
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Time Series Forecasting by Comparing Many Models: EUR/TRY Rates
The Turkish central bank president has changed, and she has started to execute new economic policies. Regarding that, the Turkish Lira-related currency rates have risen. Therefore, I wonder how the Euro to Turkish lira exchange rates will look by the end of the year. While we will model the exchange rates, we will benefit from multiple model screen...
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Understanding the Effect of Subsidies on Agriculture with Neural Networks
Today, subsidies are the most common method of encouraging countries to deal with global warming; but it is debatable how effective they are. For instance, agriculture subsidies cause farmers to violate forest frontier and make them responsible for 14% of global deforestation every year. Not to mention excessive use of fertilizers degrades the soil...
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JAGS Simulation with Multivariate State-Space Model: The G7 on Food Security
The 49th G7 summit was held recently in Japan. Ukraine was one of the most critical issues at the meeting; most of the session topic was related to problems stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One of the problems, aforementioned is food security. Because of the war, energy prices have been up. And that has stimulated food inflation. ...
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Understanding the Gender-based Over-qualified Employment Rates in the EU using Bootstrap Intervals
Most of the time, if there is a recession in an economy, it leads to a high unemployment rate, and then it triggers the over-qualified employment rate; Because people would feel financially insecure and they’d accept the first job that comes their way regardless of how the job suit for their skills or education levels. Over-qualification employme...
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Predicting the Real USD/TRY Rates with MARS
The ongoing debate recently in Turkey is that the Turkish government has suppressed US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rates (USD/TRY) to prevent economic turmoil. Many authorities in the business, especially exporters, think that the USD/TRY parity should be in the range of 24-25 Turkish Lira. To look through that, we will predict for the whole year ...
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Food Inflation: Comparing with Interactive Chart of {ggiraph}
According to authorities, up to 205 million are facing food insecurity in about 45 countries. Besides global warming that causes poor rainfall performance, another strong reason to worry about the issue is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which causes trade-related restrictions. I’ve just wondered how this reflects on food inflation. To do that, w...
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Forecasting Disney Stock Prices as the Latest Earnings Beat Estimates
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) recently announced significant labor cuts to ease shareholders’ pressure on reducing costs due to rising streaming investment. These cuts and some structural changes in the company have provided some boost to stock prices. We will examine these price changes based on earnings per share (EPS) and their consensus forecast...
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Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.
The debt ceiling was always an issue in the United States. As of today, the national government debt has reached the debt ceiling, which is $31.4 trillion. The authorities have warned of chaotic consequences if Congress no longer approves the debt ceiling. The U.S. government has managed an annual deficit of approximately $1 billion since 2001. W...
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