Publications by Selcuk Disci
Time Series Forecasting: The BIST Banks Index
The Turkish Banking sector has always been considered the decisive indicator of the Turkish economy. After the transition to the Orthodox monetary policies, the Central Bank’s interest rate has been rising to 50% in the short term. This has instituted confidence, especially for foreign investors. This confidence has lifted the banking index (XBAN...
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KNN vs. XGBoost Rivalry: Women Employment in Management
Finding a high-profile job position has been very hard for women especially those living in countries with few opportunities for related acquires. This problem can be stemmed from many reasons like contextual factors and accessibility dimensions. This article will examine females’ high-profile job positions rate in the working environment worldwi...
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Causal Effect of Approval of ETF for Bitcoin on the Prices
As known, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made a historic decision for the cryptocurrency markets on January 10, approving spot Bitcoin ETF applications. What we are going to do is examine the effect of this decision on the prices after the approval. To do this, we will use the CausalImpact package from Google. This model uses the s...
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Homicide Rates from Gender Perspective: Analysis using Radar Chart and Bootstrap Intervals
The violence in the regions is essential to indicate the peace and security reached by the countries. Fortunately, the global homicide rate has been decreasing while it is slowly. But as for men, the situation does not look so bright. The global homicide rate per 100.000 people is about four times higher for men when compared to women. First, we wi...
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Understanding Methane Emissions Through Heat Map and Comparison of Many Models
It is a little-known fact that methane is more dangerous than carbon dioxide when it comes to global warming; it would harm the atmosphere about 80 times more than CO2. In this article, we will take a look at this situation across regions. First, we examine the methane rates with a heatmap. library(tidyverse) library(openxlsx) library(WDI) library...
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Data Visualization of the WBL Index and Modeling with Quantile Regression using Random Forest
As we enter the new year, women still seem not to have equal rights compared to men in the working environment. This situation is more prominent in the developing and least developed countries. This article will examine that using the WBL (women, business, and law) index. First, we will create a plot comparing WBL scores by region, excluding high-i...
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Comparing many Models with Fast Regression
The banking sector has risen since the passing of the orthodox economic policies in Turkey. This article will analyze and model an exchange-traded fund tracking the Turkish banking index for projection for the upcoming year. library(tidyverse) library(timetk) #TCMB(Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) One-Week Repo Rate df_tcmb_rates <- rea...
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Time Series Analysis and Understanding a Eurobond Fund with Prophet
The Eurobonds are so popular in Turkey nowadays. The reason for this is that the CDS of Turkey fell for quite a while since the new economic outlook began, according to the economists. We will look into the factors that shape this trend in this article. First, we build our data set with the components that we think are related to the Turkish Eurobo...
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Forecasting Freddie Mac with the DeepAR Algorithm
Mortgage rates have been the highest in the US over the last 20 years. Inventory shortage and high inflation have driven home prices up. I have analyzed this situation by taking FMCC as an indicator of the American housing market. I’ve examined the distribution of Freddie Mac(FMCC) before and after the mortgage crisis period. While I did that, I ...
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Time Series Forecasting by Comparing Many Models: EUR/TRY Rates
The Turkish central bank president has changed, and she has started to execute new economic policies. Regarding that, the Turkish Lira-related currency rates have risen. Therefore, I wonder how the Euro to Turkish lira exchange rates will look by the end of the year. While we will model the exchange rates, we will benefit from multiple model screen...
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