Publications by Ryland Matis
Heather Sports Betting
Overview In this program, Heather is calculating the implied probability of a team winning from the moneyline odds and comparing that to the inferred probability of them winning according to the spread. The spread probabilities are calculated for each matchup by combining the two teams’ margin of victory/loss over/under the spread for the curre...
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1 Simple Linear Regression Simple linear regression refers to the fitting of a straight line (with a slope and intercept) that partially determines a random variable \(Y\) from a deterministic variable \(X\). stuff 1.1 Mathematics 1.1.1 Estimation The formulas for the least squares estimates of the slope (\(\beta_1\)) and intercept (\(\beta_0\)...
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Random Forest Modeling of Stocks
This webpage contains an analysis of over 2000 mid to large size stocsk on the NYSE and NASDAQ using Random Forest modeling. A more technical description of this analysis is given at the end of the page. Buy Recommendations The following stocks were classified as gaining 5% in the next 5 days from today’s opening price. The stocks are sorted b...
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Truncated Saddlepoint Approximation: ReExpressed Fourth Cumulant
This document contains the R code for generating estimates of the Upper and Lower Control limits of the process mean with a user specified type-1 error probability based on a truncated saddlepoint approximaiton with a re-expressed fourth cumulant. The first three cumulants of the process distribution are assumed to be known or accurately estimate...
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Stock Analysis using Random Forest Machine Learning Algorithm
This webpage contains an analysis of over 2000 mid to large size stocsk on the NYSE and NASDAQ using Random Forest modeling. A more technical description of this analysis is given at the end of the page. Buy Recommendations The following stocks were predicted by the model as gaining 5% in the next 5 days from today’s opening price. The stocks ...
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Backtesting of Heather in the NFL
The following is backtesting of NFL data for the 2014-2021 seasons in which the Spread is bet on the favorite team if the difference between the spread and moneyline probabilities of the favorite team winning is between the thresholds, and the Moneyline on the Underdog is bet if the difference between the moneyline and spread probabilities of the...
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TestDocument
1 First Header Insert inline LaTex between dollar signs, e.g. \(\mu\). A great online equation editor for LaTex may be found at CodeCogs (https://latex.codecogs.com/eqneditor/editor.php) 1.1 First Subheader Can insert LaTex on its own line between double dollar signs, e.g. \[ x+\frac{1}{2}=\gamma_1 \] Text between double stars is bold. Bulleted...
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Summary of Data We are going to first read in the data from a github site and display the data. dat<-read.csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/tmatis12/datafiles/main/US_Japanese_Cars.csv") knitr::kable(dat) USCars JapaneseCars 18 24 15 27 18 27 16 25 17 31 15 35 14 24 14 19 14 28 15 23 15 27 14 20 15 22 14 18 22 20 18 31 21 3...
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HeatherNBA
The purse is $2000. The thresholds for the ML on Underdog are (-0.08,-0.02) DraftKings Team_F ML_F S_F Diff_F Team_U ML_U S_U Diff_U MoneyF MoneyU Spread KC_ML Bet DateTime Toronto 0.86 0.79 0.07 Houston 0.14 0.21 -0.07 -720 500 11.0 0.05 100 Apr 8 7:30pm Brooklyn 0.75 0.71 0.04 Cleveland 0.25 0.29 -0.04 -350...
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