Publications by Mason Illies
Best Practices 1
Chapter 1 It’s Not Just about Forecasting The following are the key points in the chapter. Elaborate on each point in at least 30 words. Understanding economics can help you to diagnose the causes of increases or decreases in sales volumes and costs. Economics is a very precise field, and this adds to it’s trust factor in business decis...
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Best Practices 2
## # A tibble: 1,096 × 5 ## # Groups: symbol [8] ## symbol date price change text ## <chr> <date> <dbl> <dbl> <glue> ## 1 GDPC1 1947-01-01 2034. NA 1947.1, ## Growth: NA ## 2 GDPC1 1947-04-01 2029. -0.00267 1947.2, ## Growth: -0.3% ## 3 GDPC1 1947-07-01 2025. -0.00207 1...
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Real World Applications 2
## # A tibble: 548 × 5 ## # Groups: symbol [4] ## symbol date price change text ## <chr> <date> <dbl> <dbl> <glue> ## 1 GDPC1 1947-01-01 2034. NA 1947.1, ## Growth: NA ## 2 GDPC1 1947-04-01 2029. -0.00267 1947.2, ## Growth: -0.3% ## 3 GDPC1 1947-07-01 2025. -0.00207 194...
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Best Practices 3
Chater Openning Questions Managers need to know: Summary Causes of Recessions How it works Associated Recessions monetary policy The Fed can slow the economy by tightening monetary policy, which decreases the money supply and/or raises interest rates. Higher interests reduce economic activity by increasing financing costs. all recessions? Th...
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Real World Applications 3
Economic Dashboard Market Indicators Economic Indicators What is your reading of the economy? It doesn’t seem like we are at risk for a recession at this moment, based solely on the market indicators. However, this seemed to be best at correlating with, not predicting a recession. The consumer sentiment index seemed to give a better leadi...
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Best Practices 4
Chapter Opening Questions I didn’t have my book on me, so some of the questions were left blank. I did my best with the videos and won’t repeat this offence! The facts about inflation Volatility: CPI < PPI Finished Goods < PPI Intermediate Goods < PPI Crude Materials Price Growth: CPI > PPI Finished Goods > PPI Intermediate Goods > PPI C...
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Applications 4
Economic Dashboard Grappone outputPrice = Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: New Vehicles in U.S. City Average inputPrice = Producer Price Index by Industry: New Car Dealers: New Vehicle Sales Bank of New Hampshire outputPrice = Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity inputPrice = Market Yield on U....
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Best Practices 5
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to monitor: Current sales to track ability to hit goals Future sales for the ability to set the goals The current status of the business in regards to recession Overall financial status of business in regards to spending Warning systems that can trigger if the financials are unbecoming of growth Summary...
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Best Practices 6
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to develop an early warning system that includes: Macroeconomic warning signals End user information Customer sales forecast Critical cost Summary Managing through the Business Cycle Steps Description macroeconomic warning signals The early warning system should include indicators for the overall eco...
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Real World Applications 6
Survey of Professional Forecasters The author writes on page 31: "At the beginning of 2001, the economy was not in recession. The fourth quarter of 2000 data had not been released but would, in time, show that the economy had grown by 2.2 percent in twelve months. Forecasters were nervous, however. The consensus forecast published by the Federal ...
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