Publications by Learning Machines
Can Money Really Buy Happiness? Or How to Lie with Statistics in Science
It’s a widely accepted notion that money influences happiness, a concept famously associated with Noble laureate Daniel Kahneman, who purportedly demonstrated that emotional wellbeing increases with income but plateaus beyond an annual threshold of about $75,000. This idea has permeated both academic circles and popular media, reinforcing the bel...
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Reversion to the Mean: Unraveling a Pervasive Misconception in Business and Beyond
In the realm of business and leadership, one statistical phenomenon often goes unrecognized yet significantly influences our understanding of performance and success. This is the concept of reversion to the mean. This seemingly simple statistical occurrence can profoundly impact how we perceive management strategies, leadership effectiveness, and e...
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Confidence Intervals in Election Polling: Understanding the Uncertainty of Political Forecasting
Election polls play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of elections and shaping public opinion. However, it’s important to understand that the results of any single poll should be taken with a grain of salt. Many polls only ask about 1,000 people about their political preferences, which is quite small in comparison to the often millions of...
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Is this still Weather or is it already Climate? Decoding Chaos!
Weather and climate are words often used interchangeably in casual conversations. But when a chilly summer breeze sweeps through in July, or when unexpected rains dampen our winter holidays, the age-old debate resurfaces: “Is climate change even real?” If you want to dive deep into the fascinating realm of chaotic systems to unravel this enigma...
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Can a Simple Multi-Agent Model Replicate Complex Stock Market Behaviour?
The stock market is one of the most complex systems we know about. Millions of intelligent, highly competitive people (and increasingly AIs) try to outwit each other to earn as much money as possible. In this post we build a simulation where little agents employ different trading strategies on an artificial stock market to replicate key stylized fa...
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The Big Picture: Technical + Fundamental Analysis = Buy-and-Hold
In this post, let us rise into the air to have a good view of the stock market. From this perspective, seemingly unrelated things all of a sudden become connected and patterns hidden by all the buzz and noise start to appear! If you want to understand the big picture of technical and fundamental analysis, its relation to the payoffs of certain opti...
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R for Everyone: Analytical Superpowers in under 10 Minutes!
R is a powerful programming language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. In this post, we will provide a quick introduction to R using the famous iris dataset. We will cover loading data, exploring the dataset, basic data manipulation, and plotting. By the end, you should have a good understanding of how to get started with R, s...
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Building and Backtesting a Volatility-based Trading Strategy with ChatGPT
This post presents a real highlight: We will build and backtest a quantitative trading strategy in R with the help of OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4! If you want to get a glimpse into the future of trading system development, read on! On this blog, I already provided a template to build your own trading system (see Backtest Trading Strategies Like a Real Qu...
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Cosmopsychism and the Many Worlds Interpretation: A Monistic Perspective on Consciousness and Quantum Mechanics
The topic of consciousness doesn’t cease to fascinate me. I have already written about it here: Will AI become conscious any time soon?. This essay could be seen as a continuation of my ongoing journey towards an integrated (holistic) worldview of mind and matter, that could be characterized as having a spiritual dimension to it, yet being ground...
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Polycrisis: When Will the World End? Professor Gott’s Equation Gives an Answer! (Also as a Video!)
The 21st century has been marked by a series of global crises – from environmental degradation and pandemics to economic instability and political unrest. As we hurtle forward towards the future, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the challenges we face as a species are numerous and interlinked, the word “polycrisis” is making the rounds...
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