Publications by Juan Esteban Rincón Poveda
Assigment 3
R Markdown t=seq(2005.01,2021.04, length.out=length(PIB_Export$DATE)) PIB<-ts(PIB_Export$GDP,frequency=4,start=c(2005,1)) PIB ## Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 ## 2005 81213.24 83953.56 85294.68 87496.52 ## 2006 89908.93 93263.01 98022.59 100409.47 ## 2007 103463.74 104380.70 108685.53 111976.03 ## 2008 115139.53 116839.32 1...
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Hyndman Chapter 3 and 7
Hyndman Chapter 3 1. Consider the GDP information in global_economy. Plot the GDP per capita for each country over time. Which country has the highest GDP per capita? How has this changed over time? library(dplyr) ## ## Attaching package: 'dplyr' ## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats': ## ## filter, lag ## The following o...
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Time Series Analysis on the impact of Procolombia’s exports over Colombia’s GDP
This article aims to find the effect the of exports supported by procolombia on the economic growth of Colombia. To achieve this, we will use two sources of information , 1. monthly information of the exports supported by procolombia and 2.monthly information about colombia’s GDP. In order to achieve this, We will use methods such as additive a...
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Additive and Multiplicative Decomposition
Additive and Multiplicative Decomposition Here we will find the series of exports that have been supported by Procolombia from January 2009 to January 2022. Procolombia is a Colombian government company that seeks to support exports of non-traditional goods or services. t=seq(2009.1,2022.2, length.out=length(Exportaciones_Mensuales_Procolombia$DA...
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Forecasting Colombia’s GDP.
This exercise aims to forecast the Colombian GDP. To achieve this, we will use two sources of information , 1. quarterly information of the exports supported by procolombia and quarterly information about colombia’s GDP. In order to achieve this, We will use models such as ETS, ARIMA and VAR in order to identify the best-fitting model to later ...
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Neuronal Networks Assigment
Discussion Week 7 Neural Networks for Procolombia’s Exports’s For this week i will use Procolombia’s Exports between 2010 and 2022. ## Warning: Removed 16 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path). ## Warning: Removed 16 rows containing missing values (geom_point). What we are going to do now is to use the NN method with a 0.5 lambda ...
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Discussion 6 - VAR model
Discussion Week 6 VAR Model for Colombia’s GDP and Procolombia’s exports. For this week i will use colombia’s GDP and Procolombia’s Exports between 2009 and 2022. PIB_Export <- read_excel("~/Desktop/PIB_Export.xlsx") t=seq(2009.1,2022.2, length.out=length(PIB_Export$DATE)) export<-ts(PIB_Export$EXPORT1,frequency=4,start=c(2005,1)) pl...
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Midterm - Forecast for COVID19 Cases in Colombia
Midterm Juan Esteban Rincón Poveda The problem The idea of this paper is to build a model that accurately predicts daily covid cases in Colombia using only past values. This model can help us understand how the virus works and better yet, help us make all kinds of decisions.We will use two types of model. ARIMA and ETS to specify the coronavir...
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Week 4 Discussion
Discussion 4 For this discusion i will be using the Colombian GDP between 2005 and 2021. PIB <- ts(PIB_Export$GDP, frequency = 4, start=c(2005)) plot(PIB) ETS <- ets(PIB) plot(ETS) accuracy(ETS) ## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1 ## Training set 920.9457 8218.59 3503.934 0.2879688 1.676985 0.22772...
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