Publications by David Nilsson
Best Practice 3
Chater Openning Questions Managers need to know: How signals from the outside world will affect the economy and their forecasts. Summary Causes of Recessions: Multiple strains on the economy. Monetary policy is one of the most common ones, with supply and sudden increase in key goods. How it works: Monetary - Sudden increase in price of key go...
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Real World Applications 3
Economic Dashboard Market Indicators During both of the recessions the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index declined. On the first one it declined by just over 4 points and on the second one the lowest point was a decrease by 10 points, but it increased by 3.5 points. This shows that this index was directly related to the econ...
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Best Practice 4
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to monitor: Managers need to monitor the different inflation rates for different goods. These relationships can then be exploit by the managers. The facts about inflation Volatility: CPI < PPI Finished Goods < PPI Intermediate Goods < PPI Crude Materials Price Growth: CPI > PPI Finished Goods > PPI In...
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Real World Application 4
Economic Dashboard Grappone outputPrice = Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: New Vehicles in U.S. City Average inputPrice = Producer Price Index by Industry: New Car Dealers: New Vehicle Sales Bank of New Hampshire outputPrice = Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity inputPrice = Market Yield on U....
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Best Practice 5
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to monitor: His company s vulnerability to a recession. Summary Managing through the Business Cycle Steps Description Assess vulnerability to the recession “How vulnerable is our company to recession or a slowdown in sales?” Assess the vulnerability in terms of magnitude and timing of slowdowns ...
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Real World Application 5
The vunerability assessment Analyze the data for your client company’s industry and answer the following questions. How much have sales in the industry declined in the recession? What’s the worst that has happened in the past? During the actual recession the lowest point in decline was around negative 2%. Though their lowest point of sal...
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Best Practice 6
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to develop an early warning system that includes: Macroeconomic warning signals End-user info Customer sales forecasts Critical costs Summary Managing through the Business Cycle Steps Description macroeconomic warning signals The early warning system should include indicators for the overall economy ...
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Application 6
Survey of Professional Forecasters The author writes on page 31: "At the beginning of 2001, the economy was not in recession. The fourth quarter of 2000 data had not been released but would, in time, show that the economy had grown by 2.2 percent in twelve months. Forecasters were nervous, however. The consensus forecast published by the Federal ...
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Best Practice 7
Chater Openning Questions A manager needs to: Assess the company’s vulnerability te recession. Sketch out a contingency plan for dealing with recession. Build flexibility into the company’s day-to-day operations Develop an early warning system for identifying coming downturns Summary Table of possible options in a contiengency plan Expect...
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Real World Application 7
Evaluate your client company’s contingency plan Read your client company’s response, see whether it is consistent with lessons we learned in chapter seven and whether you can improve it by applying this week’s lessons. Elaborate at least in 200 words and cite the lessons from the Best Practices 7 assignment. Business response to the qu...
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