Publications by R on OSM
Statistically speaking
In our last post, we defined the goal of an investment strategy, showed how comparing strategies may not be as straightforward as one would imagine, and outlined some critical questions that need to be answered when weighing competing strategies. In this post, we’ll look at what an investment strategy’s main constraints — namely, return and...
4928 sym R (1675 sym/1 pcs) 4 img 1 tbl
Statistically speaking
In our last post, we defined the goal of an investment strategy, showed how comparing strategies may not be as straightforward as one would imagine, and outlined some critical questions that need to be answered when weighing competing strategies. In this post, we’ll look at what an investment strategy’s main constraints — namely, return and...
4928 sym R (1675 sym/1 pcs) 4 img 1 tbl
Fed up
Yield curve predictions are hitting the headlines again here, here, and here, though they’re not quite front page. The alarm bells are ringing since the probability of a recession appears to have increased meaningfully in the past few months. We look at the data to try to infer whether a recession is around the corner. So what is it that has ru...
3350 sym R (3033 sym/1 pcs) 4 img 5 tbl
Fed up
Yield curve predictions are hitting the headlines again here, here, and here, though they’re not quite front page. The alarm bells are ringing since the probability of a recession appears to have increased meaningfully in the past few months. We look at the data to try to infer whether a recession is around the corner. So what is it that has ru...
3350 sym R (3033 sym/1 pcs) 4 img 5 tbl
Tactics over strategies
In our last post, we discussed the potential for adding a tactical trigger to execute a strategy. In this case, the strategy is investing in a large cap stock index that allows us achieve a compounded annual return of 7% and limits the yearly deviation of that return not to exceed 16%, essentially an index roughly in line with the S&P500. As we n...
5116 sym R (6400 sym/1 pcs) 16 img 3 tbl
Tactics over strategies
In our last post, we discussed the potential for adding a tactical trigger to execute a strategy. In this case, the strategy is investing in a large cap stock index that allows us achieve a compounded annual return of 7% and limits the yearly deviation of that return not to exceed 16%, essentially an index roughly in line with the S&P500. As we n...
5116 sym R (6400 sym/1 pcs) 16 img 3 tbl
Diversification: fact or fiction?
“Diversify, diversify, diversify!” Mantra, call-to-arms, or warning. Whether you’re an amateur or professional, a student or professor, a pedestrian or pundit you’ve been told that diversification is patently good when it comes to investing. Golly, it makes sense. Don’t bet it all black. Don’t own just one stock. Even grandma knows th...
9998 sym R (4190 sym/1 pcs) 14 img
Diversification: fact or fiction?
“Diversify, diversify, diversify!” Mantra, call-to-arms, or warning. Whether you’re an amateur or professional, a student or professor, a pedestrian or pundit you’ve been told that diversification is patently good when it comes to investing. Golly, it makes sense. Don’t bet it all black. Don’t own just one stock. Even grandma knows th...
9998 sym R (4190 sym/1 pcs) 14 img
Detour: correlation
In our last post, we asked the simple question of whether an investor is better off being diversified if he or she doesn’t know in advance how a stock is likely to perform. We showed some graphs that suggested diversification lowered risk (or, more precisely, volatility), but this came at the expense of accepting less than maximal returns. We t...
12022 sym R (7083 sym/1 pcs) 10 img
Detour: correlation
In our last post, we asked the simple question of whether an investor is better off being diversified if he or she doesn’t know in advance how a stock is likely to perform. We showed some graphs that suggested diversification lowered risk (or, more precisely, volatility), but this came at the expense of accepting less than maximal returns. We t...
12022 sym R (7083 sym/1 pcs) 10 img