Publications by Pat
A practical introduction to garch modeling
We look at volatility clustering, and some aspects of modeling it with a univariate GARCH(1,1) model. Volatility clustering Volatility clustering — the phenomenon of there being periods of relative calm and periods of high volatility — is a seemingly universal attribute of market data. There is no universally accepted explanation of it. GAR...
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2 dimensions of portfolio diversity
Portfolio diversity is a balancing act. Previously The post “Portfolio diversity” talked about the role of the correlation between assets and the portfolio. The current post fills a hole in that post. The 2 dimensions asset-portfolio correlation Each asset in the universe has a correlation with the portfolio. If there are any assets that ...
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A comparison of some heuristic optimization methods
A simple portfolio optimization problem is used to look at several R functions that use randomness in various ways to do optimization. Orientation Some optimization problems are really hard. In these cases sometimes the best approach is to use randomness to get an approximate answer. Once you decide to go down this route, you need to decide on tw...
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R Inferno-ism: order is not rank
Do not use order when you want rank. Background The update of “A comparison of some heuristic optimization methods” is due to the bug that Luca Scrucca spotted. Actually, it is two bugs: I used order when I meant rank This somehow escaped being in The R Inferno Problem What I said in my code was (essentially): ord <- order(x) Now what I wan...
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Returns with negative net asset values
How are returns calculated when net asset value goes negative? Previously In “A tale of two returns” we highlighted the similarities and differences of log returns versus simple returns. Positive valuation We create — in R — an example of net asset value at four times: > nav1 <- c(1000, 900, 950, 1010) > nav1 [1] 1000 900 950 1010 Now...
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Highlights of R in Finance 2012
I unfortunately was not there, but we can vicariously enjoy it via the presentations that are posted on the conference website. Below is my take on the highlights (in chronological order). Peter Carl and Brian Peterson “Constructing Strategic Hedge Fund Portfolios” is wonderful from my perspective. Promoting random portfolios is sure to win...
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Another comparison of heuristic optimizers
A herd of heuristic algorithms is compared using a portfolio optimization. Previously “A comparison of some heuristic optimization methods” used two simple and tiny portfolio optimization problems to compare a number of optimization functions in the R language. This post expands upon that by using a portfolio optimization problem that is of a...
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garch and long tails
How much does garch shorten long tails? Previously Pertinent blog posts include: “A practical introduction to garch modeling” “The distribution of financial returns made simple” “Predictability of kurtosis and skewness in S&P constituents” Induced tails Part of the reason that the distributions of returns have long tails is because ...
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A look at Bayesian statistics
An introduction to Bayesian analysis and why you might care. Fight club The subject of statistics is about how to learn. Given that it is about the unknown, it shouldn’t be surprising that there are deep differences of opinion on how to go about doing it (in spite of the stereotype that statisticians are accountants minus the personality). A ...
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Thalesians, and other events
Featured Thalesians, London 2012 September 12. Chia Tan on “Practical Financial Modeling”. Abstract: Financial modelling is not a competition in the mastery of complexity. Rather, the aim is to come up with the simplest models adequate to capture salient market features of traded products. There exists a wide gulf between material covered by ...
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