Publications by Part Time Analyst
Cricket Moneyball?
Moneyball. That horrific word coined by the book written by Michael Lewis and later hammered further into the public consciousness with the film starring Brad Pitt. Now anything in sport using stats is termed Moneyball when the truth couldn’t be further from that. In this blog I am going to look at some concepts of moneyball. The background b...
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The Most Unpredictable League?
Hello, I watch a lot of football in the championship and often the commentators on sky sports will say “this is the most unpredictable league in the world”. The thought occurred to me that this is actually quite easy to test. All you need is a model which predicts a range of league. The model I will be using is fivethrityeight.com. Nate Silv...
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Cricket Moneyball, pt 2
Hello readers, today we have part 2 of this cricket moneyball series. If you missed the first one its here: https://wordpress.com/view/theparttimeanalyst.com In it I looked at calculating the Pythagorean win percentage for each team in the IPL and then moving that forward to calculating the how many extra runs are needed to win one extra game. Th...
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Twenty20 Win Probability Added
Hello readers, welcome to today’s blog. I am going to implement a win probability added model for twenty 20 cricket. Now this is nothing new a quick google and there are many sources for it. Cricviz is possibly the most famous version which you may have seen on the app. The idea is the model calculates a teams chances of winning from any given ...
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Pole Position Prediction- A tidymodels Example
Hello readers, today’s blog I will be looking at predicting the formula 1 grid using the Tidymodels collection of R packages. The idea is to use data from the practice sessions on a Friday, to give an idea of what the grid is expected to be for the race on Sunday before qualifying on Saturday. You may have seen me post this on my twitter: Th...
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F1 2020 -Season So Far and Why Racing Point’s Method of Designing the Car is Controversial
Hello Readers, Today i’m going to do a little data explore of the data from the F1 2020 season so far. Exploring a number of questions about the season so far. First of all looking at qualifying and why a lot of teams are annoyed by (t)Racing Point and the strategy they have used to develop their car. Reviewing the average qualifying positions...
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F1 2020 Season Review
Hello readers, its Monday the 4th January and this is the first of my hopefully weekly blogs in 2021. We will see how long that lasts! Today I’m going to be looking at the data underpinning the 2020 F1 season. The story of the season is clear Lewis Hamilton dominated to win his 7th world title. In the process he has now won the most races of an...
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Win Probability Added – Batsman Review
Hello readers and welcome to the batsman review of my win probability added metric review. In the first part, linked here: https://theparttimeanalyst.com/2020/06/20/twenty20-win-probability-added/ I created the metric using a logistic regression machine learning model. Now its time to apply the model to real data and look at what insights it can ...
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Building a Model in R to Predict FPL Points
Fantasy premier league. That yearly ritual of thinking your team you spend hours agonising over whether to select this player or that player. I find you need to watch a lot of football to keep up with it so the challenge is how can I use data to shortcut this. This is probably the biggest challenge I have taken up in R so lets see how I get on. ...
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WPA – Bowler Review
Hello readers, and today is the next in m series of reviewing the WPA metric and what it can show. If this is the first one you are reading then go catch the other two linked here Win Probability Added – Batsman Review Twenty20 Win Probability Added The first blog covers the building of the model the second looks at reviewing batsman perform...
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