Publications by Daniel Marcelino
2014 Brazilian Election
Election is coming soon in Brazil and this is told to be The Election for both the ruling party and the opposition. However, I don’t believe to see any surprise in the reelection plans of the incumbent president, Dilma Rousseff, though all past demonstrations, poorly on economic scorecard, and the atypical election where the two main adversary ...
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More on TV Ads and Presidential Elections
In my last post, I was telling about the Brazilian influential incentives for parties to coalesce based on the share of TV advertising a party holds. I just played around with those data I have gathered to produce the following chart. It’s not colors-representative of the parties, which would take a while to adjust. The interesting thing about ...
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R issues with Portuguese diacritics
I started writing in Portuguese (á, é, í, ó, ú, ç, etc.) inside R for MAC, but I receive some encoding issues, so I managed to fix it at once by simply typing the following command in the terminal: defaults write org.R-project.R force.LANG en_US.UTF-8 Related To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their b...
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Do you believe in World Cup superstition?
If you believe in supernatural causality, you will love what the numbers of the World Cup have to say which team is going to win this Cup in Brazil. According to this numerology approach neither Brazil nor Germany or Netherlands will be the winner, but Uruguay. The table below shows my reason. This was produced using the googleVis Package. Scrip...
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Parallel computing in R
Roughly a year ago I published an article about parallel computing in R here, in which I compared computation performance among 4 packages that provide R with parallel features once R is essentially a single-thread task package. Parallel computing is incredibly useful, but not every thing worths distribute across as many cores as possible. Actua...
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Discontinuity Bayesian Forecasting
I’m finalizing a paper presentation for the ABCP meeting, where I explore poor polling forecast in local elections in Brazil. I drew upon the Jackman (2005)’s paper “Pooling the Polls” to explore a bit about “house effects” in the Brazilian context. However, during the analysis I found myself extending his original model to fit the l...
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What are the Odds of an Independent Scotland?
“For things to remain the same, everything must change.” (Gattopardo by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa) In less than a month, Scots will decide if they want Scotland tied or apart of UK. Over the last days, I’ve noticed a variety of projections in the British press about this, but I decided to give it a try myself using a Beta distribution a...
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Forecasts After Marina’s Turbulence
It’s more difficult than ever to tell who is going to continue in the runoff after the October 5th. After Marina’s campaign mate’s death, a big chunk of the electorate have been persuaded towards the alternative between PT and PSDB. The values I used to start the chains, my initial beliefs, were that Dilma would receive somewhat 40%, Aécio...
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“Probabilizing” uncertainty in the Brazilian Presidential Election
The following figure shows the probability distributions of vote intentions for the main candidates after distributing the stock of undecided voters. As Marina (PSB) is getting back to her track, a question that comes to light is whether Dilma will get more votes than the sum of the others, and what is the probability that she will take it all wi...
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Bayes says “don’t worry” about Scotland’s Referendum
Just few hours before Scots head to the polls, there is not an overwhelming advantage of the anti-independence vote. Actually, the margin is shorter than last time I looked at it, but despite such a growing trend in favor of the “Yes” campaign in the last weeks, the “NO” side has an edge still. To frame this in terms of probabilities that...
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