Publications by Steven Sabol
Job Search Part 4: Timing Beveridge Curve Movements During A Recession
This economics blogger feels like he would be cheating the reader if he did not include recent work done by Barnichon and Figura (2010) on timing movements in the unemployment rate during recessions. That is why this is part 4 of my special 5 part mini-series on the modern job search and matching theory of unemployment. In recessio...
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Job Search Part 5: It’s Policy Time!
This is the last post of this special mini-series on the job search and matching theory of unemployment. I will probably be extremely distracted for the next few months, including a month-long vacation in Europe to shake the horrors of undergrad off me. I am pleased to have provided the world with my take and interpretation of this theory, please...
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The Rebirth
Hey guys, I know that I have been gone for awhile now. I just came back from a month long euro adventure so have no fear, I have plenty of time to devote to blogging now. From this day forward, X.U. Economics will be known as The Dancing Economist. WHY?!? Well first of all, Xavier University although they slightly endorsed this work, has do...
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The Road to Default: Let’s Look at the Damage with a Rant.
The following graph shows Real GDP as a percentage of the Gross Federal Debt. FRED is the resource I frequently use for United States financial data and it serves us well here. What is Gross Federal Debt? Well, its total government debt outstanding- including all the various agencies. Why do we compare real GDP with it? We want to hypothetic...
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The Road to Default: We Crumble Like A Cookie
What should we be expecting when the United States defaults and how will this unsavory process unfold? Well for one thing anticipate the downfall with a downgrade in the credit rating. According to recent Bloomberg article in the event of a U.S. default, Standard & Poor’s would lower its sovereign top-level AAA ranking to a D, and Moody’s ...
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The Road to Default: Who’s getting the most screwed?
Let’s take a look at who gets the most screwed (who loses the most money) when bond prices collapse and the United States defaults.Well until recently only about 55% of treasury’s were held domestically. The rest was externally held by places like Japan and China. Now something like 67% is held domestically, which means when shi...
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The Road to Default: Debt Ratio Comparison’s With Previous Episodes
In 2009, Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff wrote a book titled ,”This Time Is Different” about debt and financial crisis. One of their charts will provide a benchmark for us in our analysis. This chart can be found on page 121 of the book and shows the ratios of public debt to revenue immediately preceding an external def...
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Sir Sun Drop
Okay so one of my best friends Sir Kris “Wespro” Wesslen has started a new blog and i think it’s so hilariously decked out with pompous amounts of hilarity that even a blind and brainless mouse would chuckle out of amusement. Please check it out here. It is hysterical, innovative, pointless and a break from the daily rigermaroll...
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The Road to Default: Deep DooDoo
Okay so what is the situation at hand? Well the inevitable default of the United States of course. The U.S. will default regardless of whether Congress raises the debt ceiling. You may be thinking the following: But how can he say such a thing? Is there anything we can do to stop it? There is no way that can be true!Let me convince ...
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The Road to Default: Puppy Power!
Although Congress can technically dilly dally until August 2nd to come up with an agreement and raise the debt ceiling- markets have anticipated the inevitable. They haven’t sat back and decided to wait till August 2nd to panic- they are already in “oh shit” mode. On this note a recent CNBC interview with David Murrin suggests that I am n...
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