Publications by Analysis of AFL
A Different Free Kick Ladder
Each week triplemfooty tweets out a free kick ladder that is based only on total free kick differential throughout the season. But what if we did a ladder in the same style of the home and away ladder. 4 points for a win (winning free kick count in game) 2 points for a draw (drawn free kick count in game) 0 points for a loss (losing the free kic...
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Joining Betting Data
This example will be using Betfair which we hope to add to fitzRoy in the future. Making it easier to compare Squiggle and maybe your own models vs the market! Step One Read in the Betfair Data The first step is just go to the betfair site and download the AFL file with the data we need. I will only be joining the 2017-onwards data because that�...
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Exploring Different Squigglers HGA
library(fitzRoy) library(tidyverse) ## -- Attaching packages --------------------------------------------------- tidyverse 1.2.1 -- ## v ggplot2 2.2.1 v purrr 0.2.5 ## v tibble 1.4.2 v dplyr 0.7.5 ## v tidyr 0.8.1 v stringr 1.3.1 ## v readr 1.1.1 v forcats 0.3.0 ## -- Conflicts -----------------------------------------...
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The Richmond Red Zone
So watching footyclassified and Matthew Lloyd made a comment that it would seem as though the key to beating Richmond is controlling the ball via having more kicks to handballs. Got me thinking, wouldn’t that be cool if a plot showed the same insight that an industry professional had? Well lets do that plot! library(fitzRoy) library(tidyverse) ...
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Build a Quick Elo
One of my favourite sites is squiggle, mainly because I like to check out what other people have tipped, what their respective margins are and how they are aligned. As some of you know James and I have been working on an AFL R package called fitzRoy One of our main goals is to get more people to build out AFL models. For me that’s mainly becaus...
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fitzRoy – 0.1.5 release
For those of you who’ve been following me on Twitter, you’ll know that I’ve been working on an R package for AFL called fitzRoy with Rob from Analysis of AFL. Today we released a new version which has a much requested feature, so I’d figured a blog post was in order. You’ll have to reinstall fitzRoy to get the latest functions. We still...
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Taking Home Charlie
Build your own Brownlow Model G’day all, your friendly neighbourhood PhD student here. I am here to help you all build your own models. That is very different from what you might be used to which could consist of any one of the following scenarios. Here is a model I have build that you are not smart enough too, follow my tips blindly Here is a...
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Purpose
This part of the blog, I will try to recreate papers using freely available data. The reason I am doing this is because I love AFL and enjoy doing modelling, seeing graphs and reading peoples takes on the numbers behind the game. Numbers add yet another layer to the game and I find it terribly disappointing that more people are not able to give i...
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Explaining Match outcome in elite australian rules football using team performance indicators
Link to paper here As a summary, I think the paper is about seeing if “box score” data can be used to predict the winner of a game. Put another way, if I were to show you the AFL stats on say footywire at the end of a game and I of course covered up the Goals and Behinds as well could you predict who won the game? footywire box-score adelaid...
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Getting player information
So its draft time in AFL at the moment and being a keen fan on all drafting I was a little disappointing with the coverage. Not because there were not people doing some interesting work. We had a great article on ABC by the guys over at HPN who were contributors to footballistics a great book for anyone who is interested in some numbers behind th...
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